Processing the Energy Transition: Emissions, Land and Governance in Indonesian Nickel Downstreaming

Abstract

The energy transition requires nickel, and Indonesia has restructured its nickel sector to supply it by banning raw ore exports and compelling domestic processing. This study asks where the environmental outcome of that restructuring is actually determined, and finds that it is determined at decision points which are not environmental decisions. The method combines a structured review of research published between 2017 and 2024 with a comparative synthesis of published life-cycle intensities across processing routes. Three findings follow. Processing route dominates the carbon outcome: published assessments give roughly 14 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per tonne of contained nickel for nickel metal, 18 for ferronickel and about 69 for nickel pig iron, against approximately 36.8 for battery-grade nickel sulphate produced from Indonesian laterite by high-pressure acid leaching, so a fourfold difference follows from a metallurgical choice. Electricity is the dominant driver within routes, accounting for 41 per cent of global warming potential and 56 per cent of cumulative energy demand in the leaching case, which makes the smelter cluster's power source the second decisive variable. And the land consequences are measured: across 7,721 Sulawesi villages between 2011 and 2018, forest loss doubled in nickel mining villages, with environmental conditions continuing to deteriorate in later mining stages. The study concludes that both decisive variables are settled through investment approval rather than environmental permitting, and specifies what a route-and-power-inclusive assessment would require.